Conference Finals Predictions

Wanted to write at least a brief preview of the two conference finals in the NBA, in part, because I haven’t done a sports post in awhile and some have been asking for one (I got your back, Andy). Also, I am more interested in these late playoff matchups than usual because the Cavs are not only still in it, but they have yet to lose a game in the playoffs and are currently a 1-2 favorite to win it all!

Western Conference – Nuggets in 6

I thought this was going to my big upset pick, but it appears just about every analyst is picking Denver now. The Lakers showed just how vulnerable they are in the last two series. Kobe is a sensational talent, and Pau Gasol plays solid, but they are too much of a finesse team. You have to be able bang down low in the playoffs, make and take hard fouls, and play a solid halfcourt game. Most of all, you have to play with heart and intensity. Heart and intensity is how Boston almost took down Orlando while giving significant minutes to Brian Scalabrine, who could easily be mistaken for Jason Segel’s stunt double. Heart and intensity is not how you go a tough 7 games against a Rockets team that had lost its two best players! 

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are destroying everyone they play (almost as badly as the Cavs have been, against admittedly more talented teams) and appear to be peaking at the right time. Much like the Cavs, they have a talented superstar (Carmelo), a solid point guard who is not afraid to defer or take the big shot when necessary (Billups), and a compliment of role players and big men (Kenyon Martin, Nene, Chris Anderson). Perhaps Denver has just been more motivated than LA, and LA really can turn it on whenever they want (they certainly did in Game 7 against Hou). But based on the resumes thus far, you have to go Denver on this one, and since I think LA would win a Game 7 at home, it has to be in 6. Admittedly, this is a selfish pick, as I want the Cavs to play Denver if they advance, because LA was the only team to really beat the Cavs in our house. 

Eastern Conference – Cavaliers in 5 

I wasn’t particularly scared of either Boston or Orlando against the Cavs, but I did prefer Boston because of their injuries and lack of frontcourt depth. Orlando did play well against the Cavs in the regular season, mainly because Dwight Howard causes mismatches down low, and once the Cavs double team him, it is tough to close out against Orlando’s talented 3-point shooters (e.g., Rashard Lewis, JJ Reddick). Also, thanks to Howard, the Magic are one of the few teams that keep the Cavs off of the offensive boards, limiting second chance points. Plus, they have a talented point guard (Rafer Alston, aka Skip to My Lou…the inspiration behind Kevin “Skip” Loo’s nickname) to distribute the ball. 

All that being said, this is the playoffs. The Cavs have played like a team that truly has “One Goal.” They have completely demolished the competition so far, and although they weren’t the top of the league, the Pistons and Hawks were playoff teams with quality All-Stars on their roster. They are very well-rested, and I really see them continuing to the play with that intensity. While the Cavs can’t matchup with Howard exactly (who can?!?), they have the frontcourt depth to throw different looks at him and survive someone being in foul trouble. Not to mention, the Cavs are the best defense team in the league, so they can keep themselves in games when they aren’t shooting particularly well. Finally, we have the ultimate playoff trump card: the Cavs can play the best player on the planet (and this is no contest now, just about every article I have read the last few months on the Kobe/LeBron debate agrees) for an entire 48 minutes if necessary. And after the defense keeps those games close into the 4^th quarter, would you rather be on the team with or without LeBron James? 

In any case, it better play out like this, or I will likely be inconsolable for several days…