NBA First Round Playoff Preview and Predictions

I follow the NBA regular season as best I can. At the bear minimum, I come home at night and check out the Cavs score, box score, and recap, and then check how teams they are competing with did. However, the NBA regular season is looonnnnng…82 games long…with most teams playing only 3, maybe 4 games a week. It started October 28^th and ended yesterday! And yet, the playoffs are just as long, 4 rounds of 7 games, and there is always one day if not two days off in between (I honestly don’t understand why they can’t play every other day…oh yeah, making sure games don’t overlap so TV stations can make mad coin). So anyway, I will be watching a lot of this year’s playoffs, both because they stand to be pretty exciting, and my Cavs are the #1 overall seed with a legitimate shot of competing for a championship. Here are my thoughts and predictions for the 1^st round pairings. 

West

#4 Portland Trailblazers vs. #5 Houston Rockets

This is a very intriguing series to me. The Trailblazers have come a long way since the “Jail Blazers” of just a few years ago. They have one of the best young go-to-guys in Brandon Roy (honestly, after LeBron, Kobe, Chris Paul, and maybe Paul Pierce, this is the guy I would want to have the ball with the game on the line). They also have a good young nucleus of talent around him in LeMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Fernandez, and key veterans in Steve Blake and Joel Pryzbilla. And that doesn’t even include Greg Oden (below find a picture of old-man Oden playing for his junior high team...), a total X-Factor who could foul out in 5 minutes or give you a 20 pt-20 rebound performance.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have played brilliant after losing Tracy McGrady…again. I’ve always been a McGrady apologist, giving him a pass for never making it out of the 1^st round because I think he is extremely talented. But I think its time to face the facts that teams always do better when he’s gone (one of my favorite sports’ writers, Bill Simmons, would call that the Ewing Theory). Yao Ming is a very solid and consistent threat inside, Ron Artest and Shane Battier are two of the best defenders in the league, and they are getting solid bench play from Kyle Lowry and Carl Landry. I believe this will be one of the best series to watch in the early round.

Trailblazers in 7: The Lakers prayers that the Rockets can knock out Portland go unanswered.

#3 San Antonio Spurs vs. #6 Dallas Mavericks

The Spurs continue to get older. I think Tim Duncan is actually 55 now, while his knees have a combined age of 137. Manu Ginobili is out, and he really has been their MVP the last few seasons. Tony Parker simply can’t carry this team on his own. They are a well-coached and disciplined team who always have success in the playoffs, but I just don’t see it happening here.

On the flip side, the Mavericks have played surprisingly well as of late. They won 7 of their last 9, beating 4 playoff teams in that span. Dirk is always going to produce for them, and Jason Terry is the runaway 6^th man of the year. Jason Kidd will bring his experience and leadership to the playoffs, and the rest of the role players know what they are supposed to do. I’m not sure it will be enough to make Mark Cuban happy (as he seldom is), but I think they can win this series.

Mavericks in 6: My upset special for the West, but I wouldn’t put surprised to see SA gut out another playoff series.

#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets

The Nuggets got the #2 Seed in the West!?! Did anyone notice that was happening until they actually had it. This is a very talented team, made even more so by the acquisition of Chauncey Billups, the consummate team guy, in exchange for Allen Iverson, the ultimate me-first guy. I have always been a fan of Iverson actually, as he has put his body on the line to help his team win every single night for years, but his reaction to being a bench player this season shows him for what he is: someone who can’t accept he is getting older and that he needs take the role that helps the team most. Billups has given this team the leadership it needs, and now Carmelo Anthony is free to just play basketball, exactly what he does best. This is another team (as most great teams are) that has role players who fit into their spots perfectly, including Nene, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith (I’ve always thought he is underrated, which of course means he is soon to be overrated), and Chris Anderson (The Birdman flies in any weather!, see picture of said Birdman).

The Hornets are also very talented (Chris Paul is a Top 5 player, and David West is All-Star caliber), but they took a step back this year. After all, this is a team that is just 2 months removed from trying to trade their starting center before he was sent back after failing the physical. I hope they at least played it off as a prank, “Just kidding! We always wanted you back! Please play hard the rest of the season so we can get rid of you in the offseason…” They did a great job last year of becoming a great team out of nowhere, but they weren’t ready to do it with the spotlight on them.

Nuggets in 6: Paul wills the Hornets to a few wins, but it’s just not enough.

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #8 Utah Jazz

I’ll keep this one simple. Lakers: Kobe, Gasol, Odom, healthy Bynum, a coach who has won 9 championships, fresh off a trip to the Finals without a ring, and yes, even Sasha Vujacic (I swear he shoots 92% from beyond the arc whenever I watch him play).

The Jazz are a solid team, and I’ve always liked them as a team. I only root against Carlos Boozer specifically for tricking his way out of Cleveland and into a big payday (How’s it working out being the #1 player on a #8 seed, as opposed to the #2 on a #1 seed? We Cleveland fans never hold a grudge, just ask Jordan, Elway, Mesa, Manny…). Deron Williams and Paul Millsap are both very good players, and Sloan is an incredible coach. But if you think they can actually pull this off: see the above list.

Lakers in 5: It’s hard to sweep a series, and the Jazz will steal a home win somewhere.

This is getting longer than I expected so look for the East preview tomorrow.